Iimarike zeepellet zehlabathi zonyuke kakhulu kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo, ikakhulu ngenxa yemfuno evela kwicandelo lezoshishino. Ngelixa iimarike zokufudumeza iipellet zenza isixa esibalulekileyo semfuno yehlabathi, olu gqabagqaba luza kugxila kwicandelo leshishini lepellet yeeplanga.

Iimarike zokufudumeza iipellet ziye zacelwa umngeni kwiminyaka yakutshanje ngeendleko eziphantsi zokufudumeza amafutha (amaxabiso e-oyile negesi) kunye nokufudumala kunobusika obuqhelekileyo eMntla Melika naseYurophu. I-FutureMetrics ilindele ukuba indibaniselwano yamaxabiso e-oyile aphezulu kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo ye-de-carbonization iya kubuyisela ukukhula kwemfuno kwintsingiselo ngo-2020s.

Kwiminyaka eliqela edlulileyo, icandelo leepellet zokhuni loshishino lalilikhulu njengecandelo lepellet yokufudumeza, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba libe likhulu kakhulu kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.
Imarike yeeplanga zeeplanga zeshishini iqhutywa kukuthomalalisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokwenziwa ngokutsha. Iipelithi zemithi yemizi-mveliso zizibaso ezisezantsi zekhabhoni ezihlaziyekayo ezithatha indawo yamalahle ngokulula kwizikhululo zamandla eziluncedo ezinkulu.

Iipellets zingatshintshwa endaweni yamalahle ngeendlela ezimbini, nokuba yinguqu epheleleyo okanye ukuqhunyiswa ngokubambisana. Ukuguqulwa okupheleleyo, iyunithi yonke kwisikhululo samalahle iguqulwa ukusuka ekusebenziseni amalahle ekusebenziseni iiplanga zokhuni. Oku kufuna uhlengahlengiso kwindlela yokuphatha amafutha, iisistim zesondlo, kunye nezitshisi. Ukudubula ngokubambisana kukutsha kweepeliti zokhuni kunye namalahle. Kumlinganiselo ophantsi wokudubula ngokubambisana, uhlengahlengiso olungephi kwizibonelelo zamalahle ezikhoyo ziyafuneka. Enyanisweni, kwimixube esezantsi (ngaphantsi kweepesenti ezisixhenxe) zeepelisi zokhuni, phantse akukho kuguqulwa okufunekayo.

Imfuno e-UK kunye ne-EU kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-plateau yi-2020. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula okukhulu kulindeleke eJapan naseMzantsi Korea kwi-2020s. Sikwalindele ukuba iCanada kunye ne-US zibe nezityalo zombane zamalahle ezicolisiweyo zisebenzisa iipellet zenkuni zemizi-mveliso ngo-2025.

Imfuno yePellet

Iiprojekthi ezintsha zokudubula kunye nokuguqula izinto ezintsha eJapan, e-EU nase-UK, naseSouth Korea, kunye neeprojekthi ezincinci ezizimeleyo zeplanti yamandla eJapan, ziqikelelwa ukuba zongeze malunga ne-24 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kwimfuno yangoku ngo-2025. ukukhula okulindelekileyo kuvela eJapan, naseSouth Korea.

I-FutureMetrics igcina uvimba weenkcukacha weprojekthi ethe ngqo kuzo zonke iiprojekthi ekulindeleke ukuba zitye iipeliti zomthi. Uninzi lonikezelo lweepellets kwimfuno entsha ecwangcisiweyo kwi-EU nase-UK sele ilungiselelwe nabavelisi abakhulu abakhoyo. Nangona kunjalo, iimarike zaseJapan kunye ne-S. Korea zinika ithuba lomthamo omtsha, oko kukuthi, ubukhulu becala, kungekhona kumbhobho njenganamhlanje.

EYurophu naseNgilani

Ukukhula kwangaphambili (ngo-2010 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku) kwicandelo lemveliso yeeplanga zeplanga livela entshona Yurophu nase-UK Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula eYurophu kuyacotha kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kuphume kwinqanaba ekuqaleni kwe-2020s. Ukukhula okuseleyo kwimfuno yepellet yeenkuni yaseYurophu kuya kuvela kwiiprojekthi zaseNetherlands nase-UK

Imfuno yamaziko aseDatshi ayikaqinisekwa, njengoko amaziko amalahle alibazise izigqibo zokugqibela zotyalo-mali malunga nohlengahlengiso lomlilo odibeneyo ade anikwe ingqinisekiso yokuba iindawo zawo zamalahle ziya kukwazi ukuqhubeka nokusebenza. Uninzi lwabahlalutyi, kuquka i-FutureMetrics, balindele ukuba le miba isonjululwe kwaye imfuno yamaDatshi iya kukhula ubuncinane nge-2.5 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kwiminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemine ezayo. Kungenzeka ukuba imfuno yamaDatshi izakunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-3.5 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka ukuba zone izikhululo zamalahle ezinikwe inkxaso-mali ziyaqhubeka nezicwangciso zazo.

Iiprojekthi ezimbini zase-UK, i-EPH's 400MW uguqulo lwesikhululo samandla e-Lynemouth kunye neplanti ye-MGT ye-Teeside greenfield CHP, kungoku nje ziyagunyaziswa okanye ziphantsi kolwakhiwo. I-Drax isanda kwazisa ukuba iya kuguqula iyunithi yesine ukuba iqhube kwiipellet. Zingaphi iiyure ezo yunithi iya kuqhuba enyakeni akucacanga ngeli xesha. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuba isigqibo sotyalo-mali senziwe, i-FutureMetrics iqikelela ukuba iyunithi yesi-4 iya kusebenzisa iitoni ezongezelelweyo ezingama-900,000 ngonyaka. Iyunithi nganye eguquliweyo kwisikhululo seDrax inokutya malunga ne-2.5 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka ukuba zisebenza ngokupheleleyo unyaka wonke. Iiprojekthi ze-FutureMetrics ziphelele kwimfuno entsha enokwenzeka eYurophu naseNgilani kwi-6.0 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka.

Japhan

Imfuno yeBiomass eJapan iqhutywa ikakhulu ngamacandelo amathathu omgaqo-nkqubo: Inkqubo yenkxaso ye-Fied in Tariff (FiT) yamandla ahlaziyekayo, imigangatho yobuchule bezityalo zamalahle, kunye nokujoliswe kuko kokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.

I-FiT inika abavelisi bamandla abazimeleyo (i-IPPs) ixabiso elimiselweyo lamandla ahlaziyekayo kwixesha elongeziweyo lekhontrakthi - iminyaka engama-20 ye-biomass energy. Okwangoku, phantsi kwe-FiT, umbane oveliswa "kumthi jikelele," oquka iipellets, iiplanga zeplanga, kunye negobolondo le-palm kernel (PKS), ufumana i-subsidy ye-21 ¥ / kWh, ezantsi ukusuka kwi-24 ¥ / kWh ngaphambi kwe-30 Septemba, 2017. Nangona kunjalo, amanqaku e-biomass IPPs afumene i-FiT ephezulu avalelwe kuloo nqanaba (malunga ne-$ 0.214 / kWh kumazinga otshintshiselwano lwangoku).

UMphathiswa wezoQoqosho kunye noShishino lwaseJapan (METI) uvelise into ebizwa ngokuba yi-"Best Energy Mix" ngo-2030. Kweso sicwangciso, amandla e-biomass athatha i-4.1 yeepesenti yemveliso yombane epheleleyo yaseJapan ngo-2030. Oku kulingana ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-26 ii-metric tonnes zeepellets (ukuba zonke i-biomass ibiziiplathi zomthi).

Ngo-2016, i-METI yakhupha iphepha elichaza eyona migangatho ifanelekileyo yobuchwephesha efumanekayo (BAT) kwizityalo ezishushu. Iphepha liphuhlisa ubuncinci bemigangatho esebenzayo yeejeneretha zamandla. Ukusukela ngo-2016, kuphela malunga nesinye kwisithathu sesizukulwana samalahle saseJapan esiphuma kwizityalo ezihlangabezana nomgangatho we-BAT osebenzayo. Enye indlela yokuthobela umgangatho omtsha wokusebenza kakuhle kukudibanisa iipelisi zokhuni.

Ukusebenza kakuhle kwesityalo ngokuqhelekileyo kubalwa ngokwahlula amandla aphumayo ngokufaka amandla. Ngoko ke, umzekelo, ukuba isikhululo samandla sisebenzisa i-100 MWh yegalelo lamandla ukuvelisa i-35 MWh, eso sikhululo sisebenza nge-35 per cent esebenzayo.

I-METI ivumele igalelo lamandla kwi-biomass co-firing ukuba litsalwe kwigalelo. Ukuba isityalo esifanayo esichazwe ngasentla sitshisa i-15 MWh yeepellets zokhuni, ukusebenza kakuhle kwesityalo phantsi kobalo olutsha kuya kuba yi-35 MWh / (100 MWh - 15 MWh) = 41.2 ekhulwini, engaphezulu komgangatho osebenzayo. I-FutureMetrics ibale i-tonnage yeeplanga zokhuni eziya kufunwa zizityalo zamandla zaseJapan ukuzisa izityalo ezisebenzayo ezisezantsi ukuba zihambelane nengxelo esanda kukhutshwa yaseJapan ye-Biomass Outlook yi-FutureMetrics. Ingxelo iqulethe idatha eneenkcukacha malunga nemfuno elindelekileyo yeepelisi zokhuni, iqokobhe le-palm kernel, kunye neenkuni zomthi eJapan kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo eqhuba loo mfuno.

Uqikelelo lweFutureMetrics lwemfuno yeepellet ngabavelisi bamandla abancinci abazimeleyo (IPPs) lumalunga ne-4.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka ngo-2025. Oku kusekelwe kuhlalutyo malunga ne-140 IPPs echazwe kwi-Japan Biomass Outlook.

Iyonke imfuno enokubakho eJapan evela kumaziko ombane asetyenziswayo kunye nakwi-IPPs inokudlula kwi-12 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka ngo-2025.

Isishwankathelo

Kukho iqondo eliphezulu lokuzithemba malunga nophuhliso oluqhubekayo lweemarike zeepellet zaseYurophu. Imfuno yaseJapan, nje ukuba iiprojekthi ze-IPP ziphakanyiselwe kwaye ziqhuba kwaye izibonelelo ezinkulu zifumana izibonelelo ze-FiT, kufuneka nazo zizinzile kwaye zinokukhula njengoko kuqikelelwa. Imfuno yexesha elizayo e-S. Korea inzima kakhulu ukuqikelela ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kumaxabiso e-RECs. Lilonke, i-FutureMetrics iqikelela ukuba imfuno entsha enokubakho yeepeliti zomthi kwimizi-mveliso ukuya kutsho ngo-2025 ingaphezulu kwe-26 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka.